MAP

Chance & Evidence

How sure should you be?

Weigh likely and unlikely, read data honestly and decide what the evidence actually shows.

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  1. STARTChance and Likelihood(not started)

    Chance and Likelihood

    Draw marbles from a bag, put each one back and tally what comes up

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  2. Data and Averages(not started)

    Data and Averages

    Stack a cube tower for each friend's books and level the towers out

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  3. Probability as Fractions(not started)

    Probability as Fractions

    Count the marbles in a bag and write each color's chance as a fraction

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  4. Spread and Distributions(not started)

    Spread and Distributions

    Time a week of bus rides and draw them as a box plot

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  5. Conditional Chance and Base Rates(not started)

    Conditional Chance and Base Rates

    Turn a medical test's percents into counts out of 1,000 people

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  6. Sampling and Statistical Inference(not started)

    Sampling and Statistical Inference

    Flip a coin 100 times and decide whether 60 heads should make you doubt it

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  7. Causal Inference and Bayesian Reasoning(not started)

    Causal Inference and Bayesian Reasoning

    Take a "linked to" headline and name a third factor that could cause both

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